数值天气预报和气候预测的集合预报方法:思考与展望          下载免费PDF全文

段晚锁  汪叶  霍振华  周菲凡 《气候与环境研究》2019,24(3):396-406

从初始误差、模式误差以及两者综合影响的角度,综述了天气、气候集合预报方法的研究进展,指出了传统方法的优势,同时也评论了这些方法的局限性,提出了对未来先进集合预报方法的一些思考,以及需要解决的挑战性问题和可能的应用。  相似文献   

Development of a snow wetness inversion algorithm using polarimetric scattering power decomposition model     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

In this paper, a new snow wetness estimation model is proposed for full-polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Surface and volume are the dominant scattering components in wet-snow conditions. The generalized four component polarimetric decomposition with unitary transformation (G4U) based generalized surface and volume parameters are utilized to invert snow surface and volume dielectric constants using the Bragg coefficients and Fresnel transmission coefficients respectively. The snow surface and volume wetness are then estimated using an empirical relationship. The effective snow wetness is derived from the weighted averaged surface and volume snow wetness. The weights are derived from the normalized surface and volume scattering powers obtained from the generalized full-polarimetric SAR decomposition method. Six Radarsat-2 fine resolution full-polarimetric datasets acquired over Himachal Pradesh, India along with the near-real time in situ measurements were used to validate the proposed model. The snow wetness derived from the SAR data by the proposed model with in situ measurements indicated that the absolute error at 95% confidence interval is 1.3% by volume.  相似文献   

Research on the Method of De-noising the Short-wave Time Signal at Low SNR     

《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(4):579-589

A voice enhancement algorithm based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and the improved spectral subtraction is proposed for the low-SNR (Signal Noise Ratio) shortwave time signal. This method is proposed to solve the problem that the shortwave time signal cannot be used for timing in complex noisy environments. The core idea of this method is to use the Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) algorithm to make the empirical mode decomposition on the noisy shortwave signal, and to select the intrinsic mode functions containing the shortwave signal information for the signal reconstruction by through the maximum correlation. Then, to make the spectral subtraction on the reconstructed signal to achieve the purpose of noise reduction. The experimental result shows that this method has a better noise reduction than the traditional methods.  相似文献   

南大洋混合层的时空变化特征     

应美佳  刘海龙  王夫常  张召儒  钟贻森 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(6):1223-1232

过去对南大洋的研究受限于长期观测的缺乏,而现在地转海洋学实时观测阵(Arrayfor Real-timeGeostrophicOceanography,Argo)项目自开始以来持续提供了高质量的温度盐度观测,使系统地研究南大洋海洋上层结构成为可能。本研究使用2000—2018年的Argo浮标观测数据,分析了南大洋混合层深度(Mixed Layer Depth, MLD)的时空分布特征。结果表明:南大洋混合层存在明显的季节变化,冬春两季MLD在副南极锋面北侧达到最高值并呈带状分布,夏秋两季由于海表加热导致混合层变浅,季节变化幅度达到400m以上;在年际尺度上,MLD受南半球环状模(Southern HemisphereAnnularMode,SAM)调制,呈现纬向不对称空间分布特征,这与前人结果一致;本文指出在所研究时段,南大洋混合层在90°E以东,180°以西有加深趋势,而在60°W以西,180°以东有变浅趋势,显示出偶极子分布特征,并且这种趋势特征主要是风场的作用。  相似文献   

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.  相似文献   

长江口水下三角洲泥质区近期沉积物粒度变化特征及其影响因素   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张瑞  汪亚平  高建华  潘少明 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2011,(5):9-16

河口水下三角洲是河流和海洋环境共同作用的产物,沉积地层中蕴藏了许多环境变化信息.在长江口水下三角洲泥质区采集了柱样SC09,首先利用放射性同位素210Pb确定了沉积柱样的平均沉积速率,其次对沉积柱样以0.2 cm间隔进行高分辨率取样,获得了沉积物粒度参数,然后提取了沉积物粒度敏感组分,并对其进行了经验模态分解(EMD)...  相似文献   

An empirical formula for friction coefficient of a perforated wall with vertical slits     

Kyung-Duck Suh  Yeul Woo KimChang-Hwan Ji 《Coastal Engineering》2011

The friction coefficient in the permeability parameter of a perforated wall has been estimated on the basis of a best fit between measured and predicted values of such hydrodynamic coefficients as reflection and transmission coefficients. In the present study, an empirical formula for the friction coefficient is proposed in terms of known variables, i.e., the porosity and thickness of the perforated wall and the water depth. This enables direct estimation of the friction coefficient without invoking a best fit procedure. To obtain the empirical formula, hydraulic experiments are carried out, the results of which are used along with other researchers' results. The proposed formula is used to predict the reflection and transmission coefficients of various types of structures including a perforated wall. The concurrence between the experimental data and calculated results is good, verifying the appropriateness of the proposed formula. It is also shown that the proposed formula can be used for irregular waves as well.  相似文献   

经验模态分解方法在树木年轮宽度序列标准化中的应用     

张永 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2015,9(5):9-15

高分辨率的树木年轮是记录历史时期气候变化的良好生物载体,在古气候研究中被广泛应用。但年轮宽度与气候因子之间有着复杂的联系,这种关系受气候因子之间的相互制衡和因物种而异的树木生长节律的共同影响。在利用树木年轮开展历史时期气候变化的研究中,剔除树木年轮与年龄相关的生长趋势是准确获取气候信号的先决条件。然而,传统的和相对改进的一些树轮标准化方法在拟合并剔除树龄相关的趋势及非气候干扰信息方面仍存在一些问题。本文利用经验模态分解(EMD)方法进行树轮资料的标准化方法研究, 对已获得的树轮生长序列所记录的信息进行分解,得到一系列不同物理意义的本征模态分量,结合多样本信息的对比及生物学特性,深入解读各分量表征的气候变化、环境干扰及缓慢生长趋势项等不同物理意义,进而剔除非气候信息,得到可以准确反映气候变化的代用序列,并将该方法与目前广泛采用的标准化方法进行对比,分析不同方法的利弊所在,为进一步改进树轮标准化方法提供新思路。  相似文献   

南大洋淡水强迫对南半球环状模的影响分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

马浩  李正泉  冯涛  刘成彦 《气象与环境学报》2015,(3):81-88

南半球环状模是南半球热带外大气环流变异的主导模态,对南半球海洋—大气—海冰耦合系统有重要的影响。冰川融化激发的淡水强迫是南大洋的一种重要外强迫。在历史气候记录中,南大洋淡水通量异常曾引发数次全球性气候异常事件。基于海—气完全耦合模式FOAM,在60°S以南的海洋中施加强度为1.0 Sv的理想化淡水通量异常,分析南半球环状模的响应。结果表明：南大洋淡水通量异常可使局地西风增强,且西风的增强在垂向各个层次上均有体现。西风强度的变化导致对流层中大气斜压性增强,平流层中大气斜压性减弱。此外,淡水强迫使环状模的年际变率振幅显著减弱,而年代际变率开始增强,谱能量的变化具有垂向一致性。海温和海冰等外强迫因子的变化对环状模年代际振幅的增强具有重要意义。  相似文献   

Notions of justice held by stakeholders of the Newfoundland fishery     

《Marine Policy》2015

Justice is an important and contested issue in the governance of fish stocks threatened by overexploitation. This study identifies the notions of justice held by stakeholders of the fishery in Newfoundland, Canada, using qualitative interviews, and interprets these notions in light of established justice theories. The interviews are analysed using inductive and deductive coding. A central result is that inshore fishers are seen as the main claim holders, with a claim to participate and be listened to, and the opportunity to make a living from the fishery. Moreover, rules play an important role in the justice notions of the interview partners, and their justice notions are clearly plural. The stakeholder notions of justice in the Newfoundland fishery resonate with the emphasis on recognition, participation and distribution as important aspects of justice within the environmental justice approach [59-61] (Schlosberg 2004, 2007, 2013).  相似文献